Estimation of patient flow in hospitals using up-to-date data. Application to bed demand prediction during pandemic waves.

Hospital bed demand forecast is a first-order concern for public health action to avoid healthcare systems to be overwhelmed. Predictions are usually performed by estimating patients flow, that is, lengths of stay and branching probabilities. In most approaches in the literature, estimations rely on not updated published information or historical data. This may lead to unreliable estimates and biased forecasts during new or non-stationary situations. In this paper, we introduce a flexible adaptive procedure using only near-real-time information. Such method requires handling censored information from patients still in hospital. This approach allows the efficient estimation of the distributions of lengths of stay and probabilities used to represent the patient pathways. This is very relevant at the first stages of a pandemic, when there is much uncertainty and too few patients have completely observed pathways. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed method is assessed in an extensive simulation study in which the patient flow in a hospital during a pandemic wave is modelled. We further discuss the advantages and limitations of the method, as well as potential extensions.

Hospital Beds for Children: A Shrinking Number and Poorly Distributed.

Regionalization of pediatric services has created geographic gaps in access to care.

A study of the evacuation and allocation of hospital beds during the Covid-19 epidemic: a case study in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Shortage of resources, such as hospital beds, needed for health care especially in times of crisis can be a serious challenge for many countries. Currently, there is no suitable model for optimal allocation of beds in different hospital wards. The Data Envelopment Analysis method (DEA) has been used in the present study to examine the evacuation and allocation of hospital beds during the covid-19 pandemic in order to contribute to effective planning for fighting the spread the covid-19 virus. METHODS: The present study was conducted in two stages in hospitals affiliated with Urmia University of Medical Sciences (UUMS) in 2021. First, the number of excess beds was determined by calculating the technical efficiency using the DEA method and Deap2.1 software. To reallocate excess beds to covid-19 patients, the types of hospital wards were considered. As a result of this analysis, the inefficient hospitals with excess beds in different wards, which could be used for covid-19 patients with more serious symptoms, were identified. RESULTS: The results of the study show that the average technical efficiency of the studied hospitals was 0.603. These hospitals did not operate efficiently in 2021 and their current output can be produced with less than 61% of the used input. Also, the potential of these hospitals, over a period of 1 year, for the evacuation of beds and reallocation of them to covid-19 patients was calculated to be 1781 beds, 450 of which belonged to general wards and 1331 belonged to specialized wards. CONCLUSIONS: The DEA method can be used in the allocation of resources in hospitals. Depending on the type of hospital wards and the health condition of patients, this method can help policy-makers identify hospitals with the best potential but less emergency services for the purpose of reallocation of resources, which can help reduce the severe effects of crises on health resources.

Point-of-use hospital inventory management with inaccurate usage capture.

Many hospital supply chains in the US follow a "stockless" structure, often implemented with the acquisition of new systems promising improved efficiencies and responsiveness. Despite vendor promises, supply chain gains from new technology are often unfulfilled or result in a reduction of performance. A critical component of achieving promised gains is the hospital's ability to accurately and consistently capture hospital inventory use. In practice, recording demand with perfect, 100% accuracy is infeasible, so our models condition on the level of accuracy in a particular hospital department, or point-of-use (POU) inventory location. Similar to previous literature, we consider actual net inventory and recorded net inventory in developing the system performance measures. We develop two models, optimizing either cost or service level, and we assume a periodic-review, base-stock (or par-level) inventory policy with full backordering. In addition to choosing the optimal order-up-to level, we seek the optimal frequency of inventory counts to reconcile inaccurate records. Results from both models provide insights for supply chain managers in the hospital setting, as well as hospital administrators considering the adoption of similar technologies or systems.

Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal [2022; Vol.28, Issue 1] / [المجلة الصحية لشرق المتوسط [2022; المجلد 28 , العدد 1

Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal is the official health journal published by the Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office of the World Health Organization. It is a forum for the presentation and promotion of new policies and initiatives in health services; and for the exchange of ideas concepts epidemiological data research findings and other information with special reference to the Eastern Mediterranean Region. It addresses all members of the health profession medical and other health educational institutes interested NGOs WHO Collaborating Centres and individuals within and outside the Region

المجلة الصحية لشرق المتوسط هى المجلة الرسمية التى تصدرعن المكتب الاقليمى لشرق المتوسط بمنظمة الصحة العالمية. وهى منبر لتقديم السياسات والمبادرات الجديدة فى الصحة العامة والخدمات الصحية والترويج لها، و لتبادل الاراء و المفاهيم والمعطيات الوبائية ونتائج الابحاث وغير ذلك من المعلومات، و خاصة ما يتعلق منها باقليم شرق المتوسط. وهى موجهة الى كل اعضاء المهن الصحية، والكليات الطبية وسائر المعاهد التعليمية، و كذا المنظمات غير الحكومية المعنية، والمراكز المتعاونة مع منظمة الصحة العالمية والافراد المهتمين بالصحة فى الاقليم و خارجه

La Revue de Santé de la Méditerranée Orientale est une revue de santé officielle publiée par le Bureau régional de l’Organisation mondiale de la Santé pour la Méditerranée orientale. Elle offre une tribune pour la présentation et la promotion de nouvelles politiques et initiatives dans le domaine de la santé publique et des services de santé ainsi qu’à l’échange d’idées de concepts de données épidémiologiques de résultats de recherches et d’autres informations se rapportant plus particulièrement à la Région de la Méditerranée orientale. Elle s’adresse à tous les professionnels de la santé aux membres des instituts médicaux et autres instituts de formation médico-sanitaire aux ONG Centres collaborateurs de l’OMS et personnes concernés au sein et hors de la Région

A systematic review and meta-analysis of indoor bioaerosols in hospitals: The influence of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate (1) the relationship between heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and bioaerosol concentrations in hospital rooms, and (2) the effectiveness of laminar air flow (LAF) and high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) according to the indoor bioaerosol concentrations. METHODS: Databases of Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, and Web of Science were searched from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2020. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed the quality of the studies. The samples obtained from different areas of hospitals were grouped and described statistically. Furthermore, the meta-analysis of LAF and HEPA were performed using random-effects models. The methodological quality of the studies included in the meta-analysis was assessed using the checklist recommended by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. RESULTS: The mean CFU/m3 of the conventional HVAC rooms and enhanced HVAC rooms was lower than that of rooms without HVAC systems. Furthermore, the use of the HEPA filter reduced bacteria by 113.13 (95% CI: -197.89, -28.38) CFU/m3 and fungi by 6.53 (95% CI: -10.50, -2.55) CFU/m3. Meanwhile, the indoor bacterial concentration of LAF systems decreased by 40.05 (95% CI: -55.52, -24.58) CFU/m3 compared to that of conventional HVAC systems. CONCLUSIONS: The HVAC systems in hospitals can effectively remove bioaerosols. Further, the use of HEPA filters is an effective option for areas that are under-ventilated and require additional protection. However, other components of the LAF system other than the HEPA filter are not conducive to removing airborne bacteria and fungi. LIMITATION OF STUDY: Although our study analysed the overall trend of indoor bioaerosols, the conclusions cannot be extrapolated to rare, hard-to-culture, and highly pathogenic species, as well as species complexes. These species require specific culture conditions or different sampling requirements. Investigating the effects of HVAC systems on these species via conventional culture counting methods is challenging and further analysis that includes combining molecular identification methods is necessary. STRENGTH OF THE STUDY: Our study was the first meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of HVAC systems on indoor bioaerosols through microbial incubation count. Our study demonstrated that HVAC systems could effectively reduce overall bioaerosol concentrations to maintain better indoor air quality. Moreover, our study provided further evidence that other components of the LAF system other than the HEPA filter are not conducive to removing airborne bacteria and fungi. PRACTICAL IMPLICATION: Our research showed that HEPA filters are more effective at removing bioaerosols in HVAC systems than the current LAF system. Therefore, instead of opting for the more costly LAF system, a filter with a higher filtration rate would be a better choice for indoor environments that require higher air quality; this is valuable for operating room construction and maintenance budget allocation.

The Challenges of Managing Pediatric Diabetes and Other Endocrine Disorders During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results From an International Cross-Sectional Electronic Survey.

Background: Frequency, dimensions, management, and outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in children with endocrine disorders and diabetes were assessed. Methods: A cross-sectional electronic survey was distributed to the global network of endocrine societies. Respondents' professional and practice profiles, clinic sizes, their country of practice, and the impact of COVID-19 on endocrine diseases were investigated. Results: Respondents from 131 pediatric endocrine centers in 51 countries across all continents completed the survey. Routine check-ups and education were altered in most pediatric endocrine clinics. Over 20% of clinics experienced a shortage of critical medications or essential supplies. ICU treatment was required for patients with diabetes and COVID-19 in 21.2% of centers. In diabetes, 44% of respondents reported increased diabetic ketoacidosis episodes in newly diagnosed cases and 30% in established cases. Biopsychosocial and behavioral changes were explicitly reported to be occurring among pediatric patients with endocrine disorders. Conclusions: This large global survey conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic highlights that diabetes is more challenging to manage than any other pediatric endocrine disorder, with an increased risk of morbidity. Psychological distress due to COVID-19 needs to be recognized and addressed. The importance of close contact with healthcare professionals should be emphasized, and medical supplies should be readily available to all patients.

Clearing the air about airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that has created the current pandemic, has caused a worldwide worry. Different countries have since enforced varying levels of lockdowns and guidelines for their populations to follow in a serious effort to mitigate the spread. Up until recently, the majority of these regulations and policies were established on the assumption that the dominant routes of transmission of this virus are through droplets and fomite contact. However, there is now a substantial amount of research pointing towards the strong possibility that SARS-CoV-2 can spread through airborne means. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recently recognized this, which poses the question of whether our collective methods of lessening transmission risk and keeping people safe have been sufficient. This paper is a comprehensive review of the evidence on SARS-CoV-2 being an airborne disease, through different epidemiological, experimental, and animal-model based published research. Studies opposing this evidence have also been discussed. The majority of these studies are favoring the high plausibility of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol transmission, and therefore the many implications of aerosol transmission have been discussed in this paper to suggest effective mitigation and control strategies.

Increasing ICU capacity to accommodate higher demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the short term ability of Australian intensive care units (ICUs) to increase capacity in response to heightened demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Survey of ICU directors or delegated senior clinicians (disseminated 30 August 2021), supplemented by Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) registry data. SETTING: All 194 public and private Australian ICUs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of currently available and potentially available ICU beds in case of a surge; available levels of ICU-relevant equipment and staff. RESULTS: All 194 ICUs responded to the survey. The total number of currently open staffed ICU beds was 2183. This was 195 fewer (8.2%) than in 2020; the decline was greater for rural/regional (18%) and private ICUs (18%). The reported maximal ICU bed capacity (5623) included 813 additional physical ICU bed spaces and 2627 in surge areas outside ICUs. The number of available ventilators (7196) exceeded the maximum number of ICU beds. The reported number of available additional nursing staff would facilitate the immediate opening of 383 additional physical ICU beds (47%), but not the additional bed spaces outside ICUs. CONCLUSIONS: The number of currently available staffed ICU beds is lower than in 2020. Equipment shortfalls have been remediated, with sufficient ventilators to equip every ICU bed. ICU capacity can be increased in response to demand, but is constrained by the availability of appropriately trained staff. Fewer than half the potentially additional physical ICU beds could be opened with currently available staff numbers while maintaining pre-pandemic models of care.

Disinfection and Sterilization in Health Care Facilities: An Overview and Current Issues.

All invasive procedures involve contact by a medical device or surgical instrument with a patient's sterile tissue or mucous membranes. The level of disinfection is dependent on the intended use of the object: critical, semicritical, or noncritical. New issues and practices can affect the risk of infection associated with devices and surfaces. Endoscopes continue to represent a nosocomial hazard. The contaminated surface environment in hospital rooms is important in the transmission of health care-associated pathogens. Thoroughness of cleaning must be monitored and no-touch room decontamination technology should be. In general, emerging pathogens are susceptible to currently available disinfectants.

[One year corona pandemic management in a 300-bed hospital : Report of the pandemic officer]. / Ein Jahr Coronapandemiemanagement an einem 300-Betten-Krankenhaus : Report der Pandemiebeauftragten.

BACKGROUND: From the point of view of the pandemic officer of a 300-bed specialty care hospital, the first year of the SARS-CoV­2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Type 2) pandemic with all the challenges for daily clinical routine was reviewed on the basis of the data collected with the aim of making future pandemic management easier to plan. METHODS: The Caritas Hospital St. Josef in Regensburg employs around 1330 employees and treats almost 20,000 inpatients annually. All records of the pandemic officer between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021 were included in the present descriptive study. RESULTS: In all, 280 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients (mean age 68 ± 19 years) were treated during the observation period; 81% (n = 227) of these were treated as inpatients between November 2020 and February 2021. In addition to the analysis of these patients, an analysis of the test concept was carried out, both for the patients (53% of the tests in the so-called 2nd wave) and for the employees; 1633 PCR tests were carried out, with 5.6% of all employees being infected with SARS-CoV­2 in the course of the pandemic. In addition, other measures such as reducing the surgical program and other general measures were evaluated. CONCLUSION: Many established processes had to be changed in the hospital during the pandemic. Both staff shortages due to SARS-CoV-2-positive employees and the quarantine measures of contact persons led to further tension in the already tight staffing levels, especially in the nursing care sector, and made patient care more difficult. The test concept in the hospital was very complex and asymptomatic tests in particular showed a low hit rate, while being associated with high personnel costs.